Previously I wrote a post entitled What Is the Ideal Balance of Age Groups in a Growing Sunday School? I am still on the quest for that answer. I have begun analyzing data specifically for Kentucky. I believe we have to care about our numbers because they represent people for whom Jesus died and for whom He has made us stewards.
Like many research projects of this nature, one question leads to a multitude of subsequent questions. In order to arrive at an ideal balance of age groups in a growing Sunday School, the following questions (and more) need to be answered:
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QUESTION 1: At what point is a Sunday School considered to be growing? (The answer to that is question is not as obvious as it seems!) The obvious answer is when there is a net gain of at least one person. Okay, but is that a net gain in enrollment or in attendance? It should be noted, however, that most statisticians refer to a growing church or Sunday School as realizing an average net annual attendance increase of at least 2% over a 5 year period or longer. This will be the starting point for my research.
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QUESTION 2: Realizing the unique nature of every church, could churches averaging more than 10% annual attendance increase have an even more ideal balance of age groups than those averaging only 2%? While there are many variables to consider, this is worth examination.
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QUESTION 3: If we refer to a growing Sunday School as realizing an average net annual attendance increase of at least 2%, what is the difference between a plateaued church and a declining church? It seems logical to use the same figure. Thus, a declining church would realize an average net annual attendance decrease of at least 2% over a 5 year period or longer.
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QUESTION 4: Could the ideal balance vary by the size of the Sunday School/church? In other words, could the ideal distribution of age groups in Sunday School vary between a church with fewer than 50 in Sunday School and a church running more than 200?
Remember, I am only beginning this research, but allow me to share some intial statistics. Of the 1,588 churches who reported statistics for each of the last six years (2001 was the baseline), consider the following table with churches experiencing growth or decline in Sunday School average attendance over the last five years:
|
Sunday School Size |
200+ |
100-199 |
50-99 |
<50 |
Total |
|
# of Churches |
132 |
234 |
442 |
780 |
1,588 |
|
% of Churches |
8.3% |
14.7% |
27.8% |
49.1% |
100% |
|
GROWTH |
|||||
|
# with +10%/Year |
19 |
14 |
31 |
65 |
129 |
|
% with +10%/Year |
14.4% |
6.0% |
7.0% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
|
# with +2%/Yea r |
55 |
81 |
134 |
202 |
472 |
|
% with +2%/Year |
41.7% |
35.6% |
30.3% |
25.9% |
29.7% |
|
DECLINE |
|||||
| # with -10%/Year |
0 |
3 |
5 |
69 |
77 |
| % with -10%/Year |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
8.8% |
4.8% |
| # with -2%/Year |
29 |
80 |
166 |
408 |
683 |
| % with -2%/Year |
22.0% |
34.2% |
37.6% |
52.3% |
49.4% |
In addition to the data in the table, there were 433 (27.3%) churches who are plateaued (whose average annual attendance over the last 5 years has ranged between +10% and -10%, not inclusive). This means that there were 1,116 (70.3%) plateaued and declining churches during that period. A more positive way of looking at this is that there were 905 (57.0%) plateaued or growing churches over the last five years.
I am not sure what all of the data means at this point. But I would challenge you to examine your statistics. Look honestly at what is happening. Consider what you can do to lead your Sunday School to take steps toward reaching and caring for more people for our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. Begin praying and asking your Sunday School leaders questions. Then, lead them to take a step in that direction this month. Be revolutionary!
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